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Affected by the epidemic, the global macroeconomic and commodity industries have suffered heavy losses this year, and the steel industry is also facing severe challenges. The 14th International Market Seminar on Iron Ore in 2020 was recently held in Qingdao. The conference discussed topics such as the global macroeconomic situation, the operation of the steel industry, risk management development, and the integration of industry and finance.

For the steel industry, Luo Tiejun, Vice President of the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, introduced that the epidemic has also had a profound impact on the industry and is expected to continue for a long time. This year, steel prices have significantly decreased, while iron ore prices have risen against the trend, leading to a significant decline in profits in the steel industry, with a profit margin of only 2.1% in the first four months.

From a specific perspective of the industry, Wu Jingjing, Deputy Director of the Marketing Department of the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, introduced that domestic steel production was relatively stable during the epidemic period. With the promotion of resumption of work and production, the Chinese economy will significantly rebound in the second quarter, and the domestic steel market demand will gradually recover, but downstream demand may be significantly differentiated. The growth rate of infrastructure investment will significantly rebound, and the prosperity of the real estate industry will also recover in an orderly manner. However, the demand for steel in China's manufacturing industry will significantly decrease. The relatively high production of Chinese steel will mainly be used for domestic consumption, with exports significantly decreasing and iron ore imports continuing to increase, with a significant increase of 11.4% month on month in April. Due to different supply and demand logic in the market, the prices of iron ore and steel deviate. However, with the weakening of seasonal factors such as the rainy season in the second quarter, the global supply of iron ore resources will increase in the later stage, and the supply of iron ore will be relatively loose.

Regarding the increase in iron ore prices, Jim Lennon, a senior consultant at Macquarie Bank, believes that China's demand is dominant this year, and the May spot price increase is mainly due to supply constraints caused by Brazil and the stable recovery of Chinese demand. In the second half of 2020, iron ore shipments will show seasonal improvement, but the spread of the COVID-19 in Brazil is still a major threat to supply. Due to a significant decrease in crude steel production outside of China, iron ore demand may approach a low point in June or July.

Gao Yang, chief commercial officer of Cargill Investment (China) Co., Ltd. Metal Business Unit, said that the global economic slowdown, the increasingly complex macro environment, the higher transparency and transmission speed of market information, as well as the closer integration of cross product and cross regional markets and other factors have made the iron and steel industry more complex and the management risk of real enterprises more and more difficult. The understanding of risk by enterprises is moving from a simple procurement and sales dimension to an operational and management risk dimension. "He said that the future development direction of risk management in the steel industry is to develop from the trade link to the production link, from a simple fixed price locking model to a more complex planned price locking model, and from a single variety scheme to a profit locking scheme connecting finished products and raw materials, Develop from standardized management plans to customized management plans.

As a powerful tool for risk management, the steel industry has gained a deeper understanding of futures and derivatives in recent years. Many industry enterprises have used derivatives to manage risks and achieved good results. At the same time, major trading houses have also continuously listened to industry opinions on delivery costs and convenience, as well as the continuity of main contracts.

Taking the brand delivery system that is about to be implemented for this year's iron ore 09 contract as an example, relevant staff from the Industrial Products Department of Dashangsuo introduced that the implementation of the brand delivery system mainly aims to play a driving role in expanding the available delivery volume, improving the representativeness of futures prices, improving the market acceptance of delivery products, and reducing delivery costs. In terms of cost reduction, after implementing brand delivery, with the recognition of quality in the warehouse, the inspection process can be omitted and the related expenses of quality inspection can be reduced. Deliverable brands are recognized by the exchange, and on this basis, brand premium is introduced into the quality premium system. Through the combined effect of these two premium, the futures price can be more stable.

The reporter learned that the Da Shang Exchange recently announced that starting from the trading session on June 16th (i.e. the night trading session on June 15th), non futures company members or customers cannot open more than 30000 positions in iron ore futures contracts per day, and hedging customers and market makers are not subject to this restriction. In terms of handling abnormal and irregular transactions, as of the end of May, 13 abnormal transactions were handled on iron ore varieties, including 4 transactions and 9 frequent withdrawals; The investigation is suspected of affecting the price of transactions in 3 cases and transferring funds in 1 case. In addition, in recent times, the exchange has also conducted relevant investigations into individual institutions and investors suspected of fabricating, publishing, and disseminating false information through the internet, attempting to affect the normal operation and order of the market, in order to effectively maintain market order.